The Oscars, which air live tonight, at 8:30pm ET on ABC, may be one of the most exciting and unpredictable in recent memory. Will Emmanuelle Riva upset Jennifer Lawrence in the Lead Actress category? Who will win the now three way race for Supporting Actor? Will Argo win even more awards, including Original Screenplay, than originally thought? Read on for my thoughts on what will transpire during The Oscars.
Picture
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Amour
Django Unchained
Argo*
I cannot see how Argo can lose. The film has been gaining momentum all through awards season, thanks, in part, to Ben Affleck's snub for a Best Director nomination. I suspect Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln have a chance, but it is a small one. Of course, the best film of the year was Zero Dark Thirty, which has been unfairly maligned in the press, and has since lost any momentum that it once had.
Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln*
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Without a doubt, Daniel Day-Lewis will win
Actress
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook*
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Two months ago, it looked like Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence would battle it out, but over time Emmanuelle Riva has emerged as a strong possibility to take the Oscar. I am going with Lawrence.
Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln*
Tommy Lee Jones was the front runner for some time, but in recent weeks, Robert De Niro and Christoph Waltz have come on strong. Waltz, who was terrific in Django Unchained, won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA and could very well win the Oscar. Meanwhile, Robert De Niro has been gaining ground on Jones and now looks to be the front runner. However, De Niro has not won any major awards for his performance, so who knows? I think Jones will win, but I would be pleased to see any of the nominees receive the Oscar.
Supporting Actress
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables*
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Without a doubt, Anne Hathaway will win
Director
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln*
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
I would give the award to Ang Lee, who had the largest obstacles to overcome. However, Spielberg seems to have the momentum and it is difficult to bet against him.
Original Screenplay
John Gatins, Flight
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty*
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Michael Haneke, Amour
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
This award should go to Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty, but do not count out Quentin Tarantino, even though older Oscar voters may be turned off by his sometimes ultra-violent screenplay for Django Unchained. I would be happy to see either screenwriter win, but I am sticking with Mark Boal. By the way, the screenwriter categories always give me fits, so I could be completely off on this one.
Adapted Screenplay
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Chris Terrio, Argo
Tony Kushner, Lincoln*
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
David Magee, Life of Pi
For most of Oscar season it looked like Tony Kushner would win for Lincoln, but Argo has been building momentum and, as a result, Chris Terrio may win. I am still going with Kushner, but these screenplay categories do give me fits.
Cinematography
Seamus McGarvey, Anna Karenina
Robert Richardson, Django Unchained
Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi*
Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln
Roger Deakins, Skyfall
With all due respect to Roger Deakins, who has been nominated many times without a victory, I do not see how Life of Pi can lose.
Costume Design
Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina*
Paco Delgado, Les Misérables
Joanna Johnston, Lincoln
Eiko Ishioka, Mirror Mirror
Colleen Atwood, Snow White and the Huntsman
This is a two-way race between Anna Karenina and Les Misérables. Anna Karenina will prevail.
Film Editing
William Goldenberg, Argo*
Tim Squyres, Life of Pi
Michael Kahn, Lincoln
Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers, Silver Linings Playbook
Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg, Zero Dark Thirty
Argo will win.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel, Hitchcock
Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey*
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell, Les Miserables
Usually, the film featuring the most make-up wins, so I am going with The Hobbit.
Production Design
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Anna Karenina
Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent and Simon Bright, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Eve Stewart and Anna Lynch-Robinson, Les Miserables*
David Gropman and Anna Pinnock, Life of Pi
Rick Carter and Jim Erickson, Lincoln
Les Misérables will win.
Visual Effects
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott, Life of Pi*
Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick, Marvel’s The Avengers
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill, Prometheus
Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson, Snow White and the Huntsman
Life of Pi, without question.
Original Score
Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi*
John Williams, Lincoln
Thomas Newman, Skyfall
Life of Pi will win.
Original Song
"Before My Time," Chasing Ice
"Pi’s Lullaby," Life of Pi
"Suddenly," Les Miserables
"Everybody Needs A Best Friend," Ted
"Skyfall," Skyfall*
Everything Adele touches turns to gold and she will win for Skyfall.
Sound Editing
Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn, Argo
Wylie Stateman, Django Unchained
Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton, Life of Pi
Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers, Skyfall
Paul N.J. Ottosson, Zero Dark Thirty*
Zero Dark Thirty has the best chance of picking up an Oscar in this category.
Sound Mixing
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia, Argo
Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes, Les Misérables*
Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin, Life of Pi
Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins, Lincoln
Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson, Skyfall
Les Misérables will win.
Animated Feature Film
Frankenweenie*
Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
Paranorman
Brave
I would be pleased to see any of these films win. Wreck-It Ralph seems to be the front runner, but do not count out Brave. I am taking a leap and going with Frankenweenie for the upset.
Foreign Language Film
Austria: Amour*
Chile: No
Canada: War Witch
Denmark: A Royal Affair
Norway: Kontiki
Amour will win, without a doubt.
Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man*
I have not seen any of the nominated films, but buzz seems to favor Searching for Sugar Man.
Documentary Short
"Inocente," Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
"Kings Point," Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
"Mondays at Racine," Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
"Open Heart," Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern*
"Redemption," Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill
Not having seen any of these nominees either, buzz seems to favor Open Heart.
Animated Short
"Adam and Dog," Minkyu Lee
"Fresh Guacamole," PES
"Head over Heels," Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly
"Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare,'" David Silverman
"Paperman," John Kahrs*
I am going with Paperman.
Live Action Short
Asad, Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
Buzkashi Boys, Sam French and Ariel Nasr
Curfew, Shawn Christense*
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw), Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
Henry, Yan England
Curfew should and will win.
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